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Kevin Matthews
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
Posts: 647
Location: Eugene, Oregon
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frank.cz@email.cz
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 1
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 Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:28 am Post subject: Good Article |
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Thank you for the article. It focuses on what we should learn from the disaster trying to offer the big picture rather than bits and pieces of information from here and there presented on TV news and news web sites.
I wish your article made it to CNN and other "big" media so that people were beginning to understand that it is less about what something has done to them and more about what they have done to themselves.
Sincerely,
Frantisek Roztocil
Czech Republic |
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Richard Haut
millennium club
Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1198
Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 10:59 am Post subject: |
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"It appears that the money has been moved in the president's budget to handle homeland security and the war in Iraq, and I suppose that's the price we pay. Nobody locally is happy that the levees can't be finished, and we are doing everything we can to make the case that this is a security issue for us."
- Walter Maestri, emergency management chief for Jefferson Parish, talking to the New Orleans Times-Picayune (June 8, 2004).
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Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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Architorture
millennium club
Joined: 31 Jul 2004
Posts: 1380
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| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 2:37 pm Post subject: |
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i don't know about all the talk that has sprouted up that somehow the bush administration is to blame for this disaster...
NO didn't go below sea level in 2001... the problem has been long standing and well understood and yet people banked on luck instead of planning |
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Richard Haut
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Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | people banked on luck instead of planning |
FEMA and the Corps of Engineers say different.
you may care to note the date of the quotation given.
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Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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Architorture
millennium club
Joined: 31 Jul 2004
Posts: 1380
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| Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| new orleans wasn't founded in 2004 was it? |
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Richard Haut
millennium club
Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1198
Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Fri Sep 02, 2005 1:46 am Post subject: |
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"Nobody locally is happy that the levees can't be finished"
levees sink over time - they need to be built up.
the work was needed to provide protection for the city of New Orleans.
rather basic physics.
taking away the money that was needed for such essential work put the city at specific and at least partially avoidable risk.
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Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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darius
Joined: 28 Sep 2005
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 4:38 pm Post subject: Design community has big responsibility in hurricane rebuild |
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I was reading this article and then I began to see a familiar "myth" being discussed as if it was fact.
There is absolutely no correlation betweeen Global Warming and the recent hurricane activity. The National Weather Service maintians excellent historical records and the truth is that between 1850 and 1950 we had far more hurricanes of equal or stronger strength.
THE TRUTH: We have chosen to dramatically increase populations in areas where land falling hurricanes are common, the highest growth in these areas was during a relatively quiet decadal trend in hurricanes so populations exploded with residents who were unfamiliar with them. In addition we used weak building codes that did not reognize naturally occuring weather events like hurricanes in relation to building survivability and occupant protection, the result "man-made disaster" in this I totally agree with the author of this article.
We need to elevate to protect from flood, we need to build structures that are designed for wind speeds per ASCE-7, and we need to protect the openings from flying debris and the resulting internal pressurization that rips them apart. In short wee need to build as if thisis the norm not some bizzarre accident oe twist of fate or global warming, lets stay focused on the real cause of these catastohies.
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Darius H Grimes CRC, CSI, CDT
1801 Winding Creek Circle
Cantonment, FL 32533 |
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Kevin
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
Posts: 1407
Location: Eugene, Oregon
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| Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2005 11:29 pm Post subject: |
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Check your sources. The findings on intensification of tropical cyclones represent the best available peer-reviewed science at this time, as published for instance in the leading scientific journal Nature.
Hurricane intensification is not at all a myth, and the point made in ArchWeek was directly referenced in the article to a prestigious research report in formal online publication at Nature.com. Now that the Nature magazine issue including the paper is fully released, the full permanent reference can be added (see below).
ArchitectureWeek stands by the facts as printed:
"While any one hurricane may just be nature, the underlying trend of increasing impact is not. The best scientific findings show that hurricanes are increasing in intensity due to human-induced global warming ("Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature.com, 31 July 2005)..." (bolding added)
http://www.architectureweek.com/2005/0831/news_1-2.html
And here's a fair-use extract from the copyrighted Nature reference:
"Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. ...
"Whatever the cause, the near doubling of power dissipation over the period of record should be a matter of some concern, as it is a measure of the destructive potential of tropical cyclones."
Nature 436, 686-688 (4 August 2005) | doi: 10.1038/nature03906
(available online to Nature subscribers, or in any major library)
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v436/n7051/full/nature03906.html
Mythology lies rather in politicized FUD, in wishful thinking, and in conventional wisdom that is not current with the actual science.
Yes, "we need to elevate to protect from flood, we need to build structures that are designed for wind speeds per ASCE-7, and we need to protect the openings from flying debris..." Because it is good and safe building practice, and because the threats are scientifically predicted to increase due to global warming.
Let's not lose focus on the fact that global warming is a real and serious problem, that statistically contributed to the Katrina and Rita disasters, in what news reports say is the first-ever Atlantic hurricane season to record two Category Fives.
ArchitectureWeek believes A/E/C professionals have an ethical responsibility to build sustainably, now, because it is also good and safe building practice, and in particular because our buildings are already increasing the threats scientifically predicted to humanity and the biosphere due to global warming. |
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darius
Joined: 28 Sep 2005
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2005 2:17 pm Post subject: NOAA forcast and activity not based on global warming |
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From the NOAA Website.
DISCUSSION
Tropical rainfall patterns are a primary forcing of the atmospheric circulation throughout the global tropics and subtropics. This global-scale atmospheric circulation which results from these rainfall patterns represents an important climate signal that allows one to predict upcoming conditions over the North Atlantic with some certainty, and therefore to predict overall seasonal hurricane activity.
Ocean temperatures and tropical rainfall patterns impact Atlantic hurricane activity on both yearly and decadal time scales. For example, Pacific Ocean phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña strongly impact the year-to-year variations in hurricane activity, while decadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are thought to affect hurricane activity on longer time scales.
The continuation of the current global-scale atmospheric conditions will depend on the persistence of the ongoing La Niña-related tropical rainfall anomalies. This anomaly pattern features enhanced rainfall across Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific, and suppressed rainfall over the central equatorial Pacific. A consensus of the latest numerical and statistical model forecasts indicate a continuation of La Niña conditions at least through July. Thereafter, the forecasts tend to diverge, but a majority indicate either near-normal or weak La Niña conditions continuing to the end of the year. However, we expect that even if La Niña fades by late summer, the existing tropical rainfall anomalies will not be totally destroyed, and therefore will not unduly impact the favorable large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern that currently exists.
Another contribution to conditions favorable for an active season comes from the above-average sea surface temperatures that have persisted since 1995 across large portions of the North Atlantic. Since that time the warmer North Atlantic waters have been associated with an overall dramatic increase in hurricane activity. In contrast, the relatively inactive decades of the 1970's and 1980's were associated with below-average sea-surface temperatures over large portions of the North Atlantic.
The evolution of La Niña, along with the accompanying tropical rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns, will be monitored very closely during the next several months for evidence of significant changes. Our expectation of above-average activity during 2000 is not based on global warming associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels.
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Darius H Grimes CRC, CSI, CDT
1801 Winding Creek Circle
Cantonment, FL 32533 |
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Kevin
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
Posts: 1407
Location: Eugene, Oregon
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| Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2005 3:57 pm Post subject: |
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Darius, could you share where on the NOAA web site that quoted section comes from, so we can understand the context? I note that the big red text near the bottom references the year "2000". Is that quote from a five-year-old document?
The current NOAA North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, August 2, 2005, is available at:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2005/August/hurricane.html
I don't see any global warming disclaimer in this year's NOAA North Atlantic forecast. In contrast, it says:
"The favorable conditions predicted by NOAA in their outlook issued May 16th [for a 95% to 100% chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season] are now in place. These conditions are expected to persist through the peak August-October months of the season. They include 1) lower surface air pressure and exceptionally warm SSTs across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, ..."
Annual predictions by NOAA are quite distinct from long-term trends analysis, though over time the NOAA methodology should be informed by the trends research. But "exceptionally warm SSTs across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea" are not inconsistent with overall global warming trends. |
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Richard Haut
millennium club
Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1198
Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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Have you noticed that increased global warming coincides precisely with falling US military recruitment.
If this carries on unchecked, it could see a "tipping-point" beyond which the US military may vanish altogether within just a few years.
The BBC quotes American scientists on the continuing shrinkage of the Arctic area covered by sea ice:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4290340.stm
_________________
Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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darius
Joined: 28 Sep 2005
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 6:56 am Post subject: |
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Fro all those thinking that global warming is causing these hurricanes visit the link below. NOAA has a lot of FAQ information to dispel all kinds of myths about hurricanes.
There is another site for Torando FAQ that is rather interesting too.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G4.html
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Darius H Grimes CRC, CSI, CDT
1801 Winding Creek Circle
Cantonment, FL 32533 |
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Richard Haut
millennium club
Joined: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 1198
Location: Nice, France
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| Posted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 8:33 am Post subject: |
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hurricanes happened before global warming. We all know that.
Did it make the NO hurricane worse ? No idea.
Global warming is affecting the climate - the only question is the speed and severity of the effects.
Since you evidently support global warming, perhaps you would care to explain what you think the advantages are ?
_________________
Richard Haut has worked with the architectural profession for over 25 years and produces the weekly Richard Haut's Competitions, which has given architects details of many thousands of projects for which they can apply across Britain and Europe. |
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Kevin
Site Admin
Joined: 13 Apr 2004
Posts: 1407
Location: Eugene, Oregon
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| Posted: Sat Oct 01, 2005 11:47 am Post subject: |
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The NOAA web posting "FAQ : HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPICAL CYCLONES", linked above by Darius, is simply not correct. It is clearly out of date, with no reference cited any more recent than 1998.
That's the kind of now-outdated information that went into NOAA's hurricane forecast for the year 2000, previously quoted at length by Darius.
FYI, if you haven't heard of "Nature", you should check it out. Nature is the probably the world's most prestigous scientific journal, as well as one of the oldest, having been in publication for well over 100 years.
Science published in Nature is of the highest peer-reviewed quality available. The latest research results on globally increasing tropical hurricane destructive power, including intensity and duration - but not including frequency - above and beyond the different decadal cycles in different basins - is far more authoritative than an unsigned, undated but clearly old government publication.
However, looking inside the source of the outdated NOAA FAQ, you can see that it's attributed to NOAA staff meteorologist Dr. Chris Landsea. He's the same guy who authored the current hurricane forecast I've quoted from (posting above), which drops the obsolete disclaimer against contributions from global warming.
So, comparing the five-year-old stuff, with the current-year stuff, it looks like even Dr. Landsea at NOAA is not hanging on to that earlier global warming denial, in his current publications. |
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